Examinando por Autor "Francisco Rosales"
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Publicación Sólo datos Economic development, weather shocks and child marriage in South Asia: A machine learning approach(2022-09-01) Stephan Dietrich; Aline Meysonnat; Francisco Rosales; Victor Cebotari; Franziska Gassmann; Santosh KumarGlobally, 21 percent of young women are married before their 18th birthday. Despite some progress in addressing child marriage, it remains a widespread practice, in particular in South Asia. While household predictors of child marriage have been studied extensively in the literature, the evidence base on macro-economic factors contributing to child marriage and models that predict where child marriage cases are most likely to occur remains limited. In this paper we aim to fill this gap and explore region-level indicators to predict the persistence of child marriage in four countries in South Asia, namely Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. We apply machine learning techniques to child marriage data and develop a prediction model that relies largely on regional and local inputs such as droughts, floods, population growth and nightlight data to model the incidence of child marriages. We find that our gradient boosting model is able to identify a large proportion of the true child marriage cases and correctly classifies 77% of the true marriage cases, with a higher accuracy in Bangladesh (92% of the cases) and a lower accuracy in Nepal (70% of cases). In addition, all countries contain in their top 10 variables for classification nighttime light growth, a shock index of drought over the previous and the last two years and the regional level of education, suggesting that income shocks, regional economic activity and regional education levels play a significant role in predicting child marriage. Given the accuracy of the model to predict child marriage, our model is a valuable tool to support policy design in countries where household-level data remains limited.Publicación Sólo datos Feedback dynamic control for exiting a debt-induced spiral in a deterministic Keen model(2024-02-09) Ivan Perez Avellaneda; Francisco Rosales; Luis A. Duffaut Espinosa; Muhammad AqeelThe Keen model is designed to represent an economy as a dynamic system governed by the interactions between private debt, wage share, and employment rate. When certain conditions are met, the model can lead to a debt spiral, which accurately mimics the impact of a financial crisis on an economy. This manuscript presents a recipe for breaking this spiral by expressing Keen’s model as an affine nonlinear system that can be modified through policy interventions. We begin by considering critical initial conditions that resemble a financial crisis to achieve this goal. We then locate a desired point within the system’s vector field that leads to a desirable equilibrium and design a path towards it. This path is later followed using one-step-ahead optimal control. We illustrate our approach by presenting simulated control scenarios.Publicación Sólo datos Joint non-parametric estimation of mean and auto-covariances for Gaussian processes(2022-09-30) Tatyana Krivobokova; Paulo Serra; Francisco Rosales; Karolina KlockmannGaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions of such processes is developed. The proposed empirical Bayes approach is data-driven, numerically efficient, and allows for the construction of confidence sets for the mean function. Performance is demonstrated in simulations and real data analysis. The method is implemented in the R package eBsc.Publicación Sólo datos Orthogonal portfolios to assess estimation risk(2022-03-12) Luis Chavez-Bedoya; Francisco RosalesThis document presents the various advantages of using portfolio rules composed by linear combinations of the orthogonal components derived from the optimal solution to a linearly constrained mean–variance portfolio optimization problem. We argue that this practice has value in and of itself since it pushes forward the tractability of the out-of-sample performance measure, and the identification of risk sources in the portfolio. This structure is further used to propose new correction schemes based on shrinkage factors that improve out-of-sample performance, and to study its limiting behavior as both the sample size and the number of assets increase. Additionally, our results are compared with those corresponding to the theoretical and implementable three-fund rules of Kan and Zhou (2007) so the benefits of using orthogonal portfolio rules are highlighted.Publicación Sólo datos Orthogonal portfolios to assess estimation risk(2022-03-12) Luis Chavez-Bedoya; Francisco Rosales
