Examinando por Autor "Luis Berggrun"
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Publicación Sólo datos Deviations from fundamental value and future closed-end country fund returns(2021-08-25) Luis Berggrun; Emilio Cardona; Edmundo LizarzaburuPurpose This article examines whether deviations from fundamental value or closed-end country fund's discounts or premiums forecast future share price returns or net asset returns. Design/methodology/approach The main empirical (econometric) tool is a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors model share price returns and net asset returns as a function of their lagged values, the discounts or premiums, and a control variable for local market returns. The authors also conduct Dickey Fuller and Granger causality tests as well as impulse response functions. Findings It was found that deviations from fundamental value do predict share price returns. This predictability is contrary to weak-form market efficiency. Premiums or discounts predict net asset returns but weakly. Originality/value The findings point to the idea that the closed-end fund market is somewhat predictable and inefficient (in its weak form) since the market appears to be able to anticipate a fund's future returns using information contained in the premiums (or discounts). In particular, the market has the ability to anticipate future behaviour because growing premiums forecast declining share price returns for one or two periods ahead.Publicación Sólo datos Industry momentum in Latin America(2023-01-19) Luis Berggrun; Emilio Cardona; Edmundo LizarzaburuAbstract: We examine whether high-return industries outperform low-return industries in Latin America. Differences in performance between recent winner and loser industries are very often indistinguishable from zero. Evaluating the segment of small and large industries also points us to a lack of return continuation across industries. Employing idiosyncratic returns instead of total returns to differentiate between winner and loser industries confirms that industry momentum does not hold in the region. Furthermore, momentum for individual industries is also absent. Overall, obtaining profits from persistent return differences between or within industries would have been very difficult in our sample period. JEL Classification: G11; G12; G15.
