"Does the sectoral shift towards services lead to a shift in the global energy mix?"

Abstract

"This paper examines the effects of the ongoing global structural shift towards services on the energy mix of economies. Unlike much of the existing literature, the analysis separately examines fossil fuels and sustainable energy and distinguishes between total final, industrial, residential, and transport energy consumption and intensities. The analysis utilizes a dataset covering up to 110 countries from 1999 to 2020. To capture price effects, the CPI is used as a proxy for energy prices, and a dynamic panel estimation method is employed to address endogeneity. We find that the structural shift towards services has a significant negative effect on the level and intensity of fossil fuel energy use. In fact, the size of the manufacturing sector significantly augments the level and intensity of fossil fuel energy use, while the size of the services sector tends to decrease them. Moreover, the share of services significantly increases sustainable energy consumption, especially in residential and transport activities. Therefore, our findings suggest that manufacturing is fossil fuel-intensive, while services are sustainable energy-intensive. The digital and financial services industry should adopt sustainable energy to support sustainable infrastructure. © 2026 CEPII (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales), a center for research and expertise on the world economy"