"Fiscal Communication Rules and Credibility in Peru"

Abstract

"This paper develops a methodological framework for estimating fiscal communication rules in emerging economies, with application to Peru. Unlike monetary policy communication, which has been extensively studied, fiscal communication remains underexplored despite its importance for credibility and market expectations. We adapt the text-based approach of Gáti and Handlan (2023) from monetary to fiscal policy contexts, while relaxing their assumption of truthful communication. Our methodology uses natural language processing and regularized regression to estimate systematic relationships between fiscal fundamentals and official communication in Peru's Marco Macroeconómico Multianual documents. Initial evidence suggests systematic optimism in debt projections, motivating future research with extended time series. © 2026 IEEE."